Ukraine: Immediate threat

Negotiations between the Kremlin and the White House in Geneva are pending, and in order to avoid a war in Ukraine, it is only natural that a certain Tejavi sentiment should be in the air – these two powers met only in Geneva. Cold War.

Times were different, the Soviet Union was overthrown, and Washington was more concerned about Beijing than Moscow. However, there are still a few things: neither party is interested in a military confrontation, the two are determined not to give up, and everyone fears that the miscalculation will turn tragic.

“At stake is Russia’s status as a major power and the sphere of influence it may have,” said Diana Soler, a researcher at the Portuguese Institute for International Relations (IPRI-NOVA) in Sunrise.

In practice, the talks in Geneva did not seem to be going well, and on Friday the Kremlin hardened its position, adding to its central demand (NATO promises to never recognize Ukraine as a member state) that it should withdraw its troops. Romania and Bulgaria. All the things that Washington refuses to consider.

However, there is little room for maneuver for Joe Biden. The president has been weakened by the catastrophic exit from Afghanistan, he is very unpopular – he has a approval rating of just 41.9% out of five thirty – eight, and a recent report shows that more than five in six Americans are opposed to sending troops to Ukraine. Study of the Trafalgar Group. Vladimir Putin is already aware of this, and therefore, instead of giving up, chose to put pressure on him, Solar thinks.

“What Putin is doing is forcing talks on his own terms. Show that violence is not completely ruled out by the Kremlin, says IPRI-NOVA researcher. But that bet could go so wrong that Biden warned himself last week that, after several threats, the Russian regime would “do something” to avoid losing face.

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“It is not surprising that the United States has sacrificed Ukraine to bring lasting peace to Russia,” Diana Solar continued. “The United States is really committed to controlling China. I think they do not have the ability to control Russia and China at the same time.

The possibility of Washington betting on its European allies as a siege against Russia does not seem realistic. Not only are they dependent on natural gas from Russia, they are also expected to intensify as they drop other fossil fuels.

No matter how militant Germany is – because of the influence of the Greens, especially its hatred of Moscow, its leader, Annalena Barbach, the foreign minister, has promised that the invasion will come “at a high cost to Russia” – or that the United Kingdom has begun to supply anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, Russia’s potential to build real European allies. IPRI-NOVA researcher estimates “NATO is the United States, and it would not work without them,” he reinforces.

Perhaps that is why French President Emmanuel Macron has called on the EU to open its own talks with Russia this week. With the intention of avoiding the “war, the saddest thing of all.”
“Russia, a significant part of the world, which is currently experiencing major economic problems due to inflation, is not interested in war,” she said. “But if Russia is to show a force to bring the West to its demands, I think it will happen.”

Power in the air, guerrilla on the ground

In order to gain strength in the negotiations, Russia insisted on showing its largest assets – which have the second most powerful armed forces on the planet, supported by an economy slightly larger than Spain’s – on the border with Ukraine. More than one lakh soldiers are stationed there ready to advance with the support of tanks, artillery and air traffic. That number could double “relatively quickly,” US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken warned this week. Against this force, the Americans and their allies will not enjoy their usual undeniable air dominance.

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Foreign policy says Russia is moving Iskander batteries capable of firing medium-range missiles accurately from trucks across the border. In an invasion, they would dominate Ukraine’s skies, block international support, evade weak Ukrainian air defenses and shoot down targets on the ground. As happened on January 14, cyber-attacks were launched to paralyze the Ukrainian government in the form of threats.

Not surprisingly, Joe Biden refused to promise to send U.S. troops to Ukraine in the event of an invasion, which would put the United States directly in conflict with another nuclear power. However, with the occupation of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s dream began.

Analysts warn that even if the Kremlin does not take over Kiev, it will choose to advance in the south and east, joining Russian separatists from the Donbass and merging Russia with the Crimean peninsula, which they annexed in 2014. Worse than the civil war in Chechnya – Putin, who came to power in 1998 promising to wipe out Chechen separatists, has certainly not forgotten the conflict, which is estimated to cost seven billion euros a year, culminating in total destruction. The Chechen capital Crosnia – or the 2008 invasion of Georgia.

Simon Wesman, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said: “Try to invade a country like Ukraine. Reuters.

So, in a guerrilla war, the White House begins to threaten to put special forces in Ukraine to train soldiers who will mingle with the enemy and operate behind the enemy, eventually supporting the insurgency. The New York Times reports that they will be ready to train these Ukrainian forces from nearby NATO-affiliated countries such as Poland, Romania or Slovakia.

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“In discussions with allies, senior Biden officials made it clear that the CIA (secretly) and the Pentagon (openly) would seek to assist any Ukrainian insurgency,” the US newspaper said.

Treat it like the talks in Geneva, a scene that never leaves the table in no time. This is because Ukraine is vital to the myths of the Putin regime, which seeks to establish itself as a defender of Slavs around the world, from Belarus to the Balkans.

“Our spiritual, human and civil relations have been created over the centuries and originated from the same source,” Putin wrote in a commentary in July, referring to the Kiev-born Russian Empire, not Moscow. For Russian nationalists, NATO’s presence in Ukraine will be seen by the Portuguese as the occupation of Guimaraes. “We are a people,” the Russian president continued.

“This is not the first time there have been 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border,” Diana Solar recalled. “In my view this will not even be the last.”

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