“The complicated hostage-release deal is welcome, but it leaves many questions unanswered”, underlines Bar-Yaakov, an Israeli analyst and associate fellow at the Chatham House security project, with an understanding reached through international mediation and set to expire the following morning. A few days will be extended if Israel and Hamas agree.
“The agreement establishes a key milestone in conflict mitigation, helping pave the way for mediators to ensure stability, security and, ultimately, peace. [Qatar, Egito e EUA] “We must continue to work to achieve the basic objectives of ensuring that all hostages are released, that there are plans for Gaza’s displaced population, and that there are plans to rebuild Gaza’s government institutions and infrastructure,” the analyst said in a new article.
In this sense, he continues, “clear agreements” are necessary between the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) and all major international actors, so that, on the day the war ends, a smooth transition to a situation that provides stability and security. Aiming for peace for Palestine and Israel is assured.
And the “only way forward” was to “provide security guarantees” to both Palestine and Israel, along with the Arab Peace Initiative, a 2002 Saudi plan later adopted by the Arab League that called for the creation of a sovereign Palestine. A joint state with a sovereign Israeli state based on the 1967 borders, in exchange for peace accords between Israel and all Arab states.
Israeli attacks on Gaza have continued unabated since October 7, in response to Hamas attacks on Israel, and a ceasefire in effect since last Friday that allowed hostage and prisoner exchanges marked the first break in the conflict.
“A lasting cease-fire could facilitate the return of more Israeli hostages and reduce the risk of worsening the humanitarian crisis among Gaza’s citizens. It would help ease tensions in the West Bank and reduce the risk of escalating the war by attracting outsiders, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and its patron Iran,” according to the Center for International Foreign Policy. Matthew Tuss and Nancy O’Kyle write.
In an analysis published in the Haaretz newspaper, Israeli journalist Anshel Pfeffer argued that the Tel Aviv government will have to face three major dilemmas in the coming days: when to end the ceasefire, when and how to attack southern Gaza, and when to allow it. and facilitating access to Gaza through Israeli territory.
On the Palestinian side, the issue arises differently, as the Gaza Strip and the West Bank are ruled by rival Palestinian factions, with one area dominated by Hamas and the other occupied by Fatah, the majority in the ANP.
“Once the war ends, Palestinian leaders must be prepared to negotiate a political settlement and represent their people in Gaza and the West Bank,” said Neil Quilliam, associate director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the International Crisis Group. ICG), remembering that for years Israeli leaders have said they do not have a Palestinian partner, can negotiate peace with them.
Quilliam argues that “Benjamin Netanyahu’s successive governments have effectively supported Hamas and undermined the more moderate Palestinian Authority. As a result, Israel has not been a partner for peace for the past two decades. Palestinian leadership is ineffective.”
According to the ICG analyst, when the war between Hamas and Israel ends, Palestinian leaders are not willing to negotiate a political solution — “there must be a political solution” — but representing the Palestinians is “fundamental.” Both the West Bank and Gaza.
“Given the lack of popular national leaders and the high levels of Palestinian disillusionment and distrust with the ANP, Fatah and Hamas, this is no easy task. Moreover, the current Palestinian leaders are metaphorically and physically far removed from the population (they are in Doha) – or They are in hiding,” he recalled.
But Bar-Yacov says that in order to get on the road to peace, alongside negotiations on the hostages, it is necessary to develop plans for the reconstruction of Gaza and provide answers to the displaced Palestinian population.
“To achieve this, the continued commitment of Qatar, Egypt and the US is critical. Then, once the war is over, the ANP will need all the support it needs to rule in the West Bank and Gaza. It is not there. One would prefer Israel to stay in Gaza during a transition phase. Israel’s security concerns are being mediated in the process. needs to be resolved,” says the Chatham House analyst.
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