The country has suffered more than a dozen coups since becoming a constitutional monarchy in 1932, most recently in 2014, when current Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha was head of the army.
Under military rule, democratic reforms were suppressed and activists persecuted. Other reasons could trigger changes in the political climate: the economic collapse and the mismanagement of the Covid-19 pandemic strengthened dissatisfaction with the head of government and the candidate for re-election by the newly formed United Motherland Party.
“The main factor may be that people are no longer willing to tolerate an authoritarian government that has been in power for more than nine years and that there is a significant desire for change,” Pingaev told the Associated Press (AP) news agency. Laungaramsri, Professor of Anthropology at Chiang Mai University.
More than 52 million voters are invited to vote for 70 parties vying for 500 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of Thailand’s National Assembly: 400 are directly elected and 100 are elected by proportional representation.
Andhra Pradesh says the opposition, which has been hailing reforms to rein in the army, is gaining points in polls. However, policies that threaten the status quo alarm the ruling conservative regime. It was able to overthrow popularly elected governments through pro-monarchy courts or military coups.
Prayuth represents one of the poles of politics in an Asian nation centered around monarchies and the military. Populist billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted in a 2006 coup, represents the other.
In the polls, Prayuth Thaksin’s daughter, Bedongtern, lost to Shinawatra, who inherited her father’s popularity and political style. The 36-year-old, who gave birth to a son last week, campaigned hard during her pregnancy.
Padongtern Shinawatra is the favorite among three candidates for prime minister from the opposition Pyu Thai Party, which is expected to win a majority of seats in the lower house of parliament.
The face-off between the Shinawatra clan and their opponents evokes other recent episodes in Thai political history. Prayuth’s coup in 2014 ousted the government that had come to power with Yingluck Shinawatra, Patongdar’s aunt and Thaksin’s sister. Bu Thai topped the 2019 polls and was denied power when the military-backed Balang Prasaran Party found coalition partners.
But a third actor has gained visibility in these elections. The Move Forward party, led by 42-year-old businessman Pita Limjaronrat, has a strong name among young voters and appears to be the favorite for prime minister in a poll by the National Development Management Agency (NIDA, its acronym in English). .
Still, another academic interviewed by the AP says, for conservative Thailand, Moving Forward is a radical party: It defends reform of the armed forces and the monarchy, the latter a bold move in a country traditionally considered untouchable.
Pew Thai largely shares Move Forward’s reformist agenda, but the latter’s direct stance poses a dilemma: an alliance with Move Forward could pit the Senate, the upper house of parliament, and the conservative establishment against it.
Thailand’s constitution, adopted in 2017 under military rule, requires the prime minister to be elected by a joint vote of the 500-seat House of Representatives and the 250-seat Senate appointed by the ruling junta.
In 2019, the Senate voted in one block, unanimously supporting Prayuth. This time, a party with a majority in the House of Representatives may need at least 376 votes if the Senate opposes the prime minister’s nominee.
If Pew Thai is in this situation, it may look for coalition partners among parties with seats in the chamber. Another alternative, underscoring the AP, is to nominate one of the party’s other candidates as prime minister, as in the case of 60-year-old Shretha Tavisin, who does not bear Shinawatra’s name, anathema to Senate conservatives.
Among Pew Thai’s possibilities, another alliance is also expected: former general Prawit Wongchuan, 77, Prayuth’s deputy prime minister and the government leader candidate of the right-wing Balang Prasar Party.
The polls will not benefit Prawit Wongchuan or the party, but being in government may reassure some of the Senate members. On the one hand, the alliance may appear to be withdrawing from the Pyu Thai platform, while on the other hand, the fact that Pravid was not actively involved in the 2014 coup plot could be used to generate sympathy among Pyu Thai supporters.
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