Former President Donald Trump is leading the pack of candidates for the White House in Iowa on January 15, two weeks before the start of the US Republican primary elections, but is also being dragged down by legal action.
In the most recent polls, Trump has a substantial advantage over all other candidates, with more than 60 percent of voting intentions compared to just over 10 percent for second-place Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, but each is increasingly threatened. Former Ambassador Nikki Haley in that spot.
However, all of these counts could be overturned if Trump is convicted in one of the four legal cases involving him, with several polls showing that the former president could lose his popularity if the US justice system proves serious crimes. On January 6, 2021, he was accused of inciting an invasion of the Capitol by his supporters who sought to prevent the verification of incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden's victory.
The Republican primaries are a long and complicated political process that forces candidates running for the White House (and in the presidential election scheduled for November 5, 2024) to run for office in all 50 states and even the District of Columbia. Capital) and five territories, between January and June.
Elections will be held from January 15 in Iowa, a key state where all major candidates are already campaigning, realizing the importance of securing a place in the 'ranking' of the most electable.
However, most analysts expect nothing to be decided until March 5 (“Super Tuesday”) — a day in which the Republican nominee will be decided in 16 states, including the demographically and politically important California and Texas.
But “Super Tuesday” could also be decisive, since the day before, March 5, could be the opening date of the hearing that will assess Trump's alleged responsibility for the invasion of the Capitol, whose sessions could interfere with the outcome of the Republican election. .
And the former president's lawyers have already asked the Supreme Court to evaluate whether Trump has “absolute immunity” for actions he took while president.
But after the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump was ineligible to run for president (due to his alleged involvement in the invasion of the Capitol), the Republican Party was forced to field its internal nomination. After an appeal to the Federal Supreme Court, the state was suspended until the matter was resolved.
This week, a Maine state court made the same decision, highlighting the need for the federal Supreme Court to rule on the matter in the next two months at the start of the Republican primaries.
The topic was also discussed by the remaining Republican candidates, who are divided between those who do not want to antagonize the former president and share his version that he is the victim of a political conspiracy organized by the White House (in the case of businessman Vivek Ramaswamy) and those who distance themselves from Trump and question his legitimacy for re-election (former New Jersey like Gov. Chris Christie).
In early summer, Republicans must choose 2,467 delegates to the convention, using a complex mathematical model that includes the percentage of the vote in each state and the number of districts won by each candidate.
At the convention, the candidate-elect will have his first official exposure as a contender for the White House, but analysts believe his victory could be virtually assured as early as March if Donald Trump faces legal challenges involving him. It should start its national campaign immediately.
Trump is the first former US president since Herbert Hoover in 1940 to seek re-election after leaving the White House once; He would also be the first Republican to win the party's nomination for three consecutive terms since Richard Nixon in 1973; and the first Republican to be elected three consecutive terms.
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