Expert warns of risk of bread shortage in Portugal – Executive Digest

Portugal has a chronic problem of food insecurity, well demonstrated by the country's forced need to rely on foreign markets to supply its most basic goods. Especially grains. According to the most recent data compiled by Porteta, Portugal imported 12,127.4 million agricultural food products in 2021, compared to 8,876.2 million imported in 2014.

Since 2018, the government has warned about the problem, but since then, little (or nothing…) has been done, Jose Pereira Ralha, president of ANPOC – the National Association of Protein, Oilseeds and Cereals Producers,' admitted to the executive. Digest'. It outlined a very limited picture of national production, but, above all, the inability to address the deficit, he explained, “returns to inventions.”

“In the area I represent, we import cereals, soft wheat (used to make bread), durum wheat (used to make pasta) and barley used to make beer, in terms of grains for human consumption. More than 90%. It depends on the years, there are bad years, less. There are bad years, but always above 90%”, the expert highlighted.

“It approved a resolution in the Council of Ministers in 2018, a national strategic document to improve grain production, which includes 17 measures to be implemented to increase self-sufficiency in rice, maize, autumn, winter cereals and wheat. By implementing those measures, 20% self-sufficiency by 2025 “The objective was to reach the supply. Now, unfortunately, what is happening in Portugal is that there are many good intentions, but then the governments 'forget' and the decisions of the Council of Ministers are not valid,” explained José Pereira Ralha.

And what did the activities consist of?

“To propose a national strategy and plan of action to promote the development of national grain culture and production” and thereby combat external dependence. You can consult the government scheme Here.

“Now, we had two consecutive years of drought and how we were with very low productivity. The war raised production costs to ridiculous prices, especially fertilizer, energy and fuel. This negatively affected our ambition. But above all these measures were not really implemented,” said ANPOC. recalled the president of

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More precisely, steps were taken in this direction, but very short, mainly on the production side.

“There was a part of production-dependent activities, the most important was to create a brand to promote national production, and that really happened. To provide an order of magnitude, we started in 2017, experimentally, when we sold 400 tons of grain produced in Portugal, certified and fully traceable. We In 2018 we created the 'Cereais do Alentejo' brand and today we sell more than 8 thousand tons with this brand.

“Because of our Mediterranean climate and soil, we don't have the conditions to produce at scale – in Portugal the wheat is rainfed and in a good year, we expect to produce 2 tonnes. In France, in the non-irrigated Paris Valley, the production expectation is 10 tonnes, five times more. But this is ours. is of lower quality, especially the treatments: they contain fugicides, which we do not have, harvesting is often done in humid and rainy seasons, which affects the quality, with pollutants, with microtoxins.

“We don't have that, so our quality is good and is valued by the industry. Through the creation of the brand, we tried to make consumers understand that our product is better, so we moved a little away from the production of goods, which happens in cereals. The production is worse than our competitors in other parts of the world. As the conditions are with us, the only way is to assess the quality and as a result we have received a great response from the big industrial companies.

Since then, the government has kept the measures in the drawer.

“Another important project that depends on us is to create a professional organization for cereals, like in rice, olive oil and cereals in European countries. They also run campaigns to promote healthy eating.

“There were other measures depending on the government: for example, the licensing of small dams for irrigation purposes. I said a while ago that in a good year we expect 2 tons of dryland production, but with very little water we get 5 tons. And there is really very little water. To give you a line. , industrial tomatoes, it is a spring/summer crop and all the water has to be added artificially, we are talking about 7 thousand cubic meters of water per hectare. In autumn/winter cereals, because of the high water content, in just one thousand cubic meters we use water at the main height 2 to 5 can go upto ton.This type of crop grows per cubic meter and it can be one of the highest yielding crops per meter.But construction of small ponds, small dams is the biggest bureaucratic difficulty.

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What justifies this lack of action at the government level?

“Meanwhile, the first government of Antonio Costa fell, then the second government, and in the last five years, what we have seen, especially with this minister, there are many actions that did not work. The total dissolution of the Ministry of Agriculture – everything that worked badly started to work even worse. It was the idea of ​​Dr. Cabolas Santos, then lost heart by successive governments. This reminds us of the saying 'only thunder remembers Santa Barbara', and only during epidemics, when there was a risk of running out of raw materials to make bread, did people talk about the subject again.

Jose Pereira Ralha explained that the situation in Portugal is not perfect.

“We are totally dependent and we have done very little to deal with it. There is another important situation, for example, China, the world's largest grain producer and consumer, has a stock for four years of use. That is why prices on the world market vary so much, because China plays with its stock and according to its interests. Increases or decreases the price.

Compared to Portugal, we have two weeks of savings. Also, in the last two years, we have had several moments where the risk of unavailability of raw materials was high. Due to our limited inventory, limited production in Portugal and lack of storage capacity, there was a risk of unavailability of raw materials for milling. We are absolutely on a 'knife edge' in terms of external dependence.

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He said this problem is not new. It actually dates back centuries.

“Our bias has always been there. From inventions… it is a Portuguese trait. Our climate and soil do not allow us to be self-sufficient. Even in the Estado Novo, intensive cultural campaigns, the famous wheat campaign, with enormous incentives, managed to achieve a maximum of 70% self-sufficiency. Nowadays, because of the global market, buying elsewhere, and the volatility and low productivity of this crop, more area is being lost, and technology and science have allowed us to increase less area, so we are losing more. area. production.”

And where do the grains that Portugal imports come from?

For wheat, for example, according to 2023 data from ACICO (National Association of Stockists, Traders and Importers of Cereals and Oilseeds), Ukraine is Portugal's main supplier, with 774.13 million kg, followed by Brazil, with 596.11 million kg. Lastly, Canada imported 179.65 million kg – a total of 2,117 million kg.

And soft wheat for bread making, France is the main national procurement market, importing 559.21 million kg, followed by Ukraine (162.49 million) and Germany (159.88 million). In total, 1,414.89 million kg is imported.

Durum wheat – used to make pasta and spaghetti, for example – came to our country with 46.93 million kg from Spain, followed by Canada (36.67 million) and France (15.91 million) for a total of 128.76 million kg.

2023 International Trade – Imports You can view all data on national imports for 2023.

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