Dow futures rose early Wednesday, along with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures. Crude oil prices soared as high as $110 a barrel, as buyers shun Russian oil amid the invasion of Ukraine. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is in touch as doubts about a rate hike begin to creep in.
An attempt to rally the stock market took heavy losses on Tuesday as oil prices rose sharply and Treasury yields tumbled amid signs that Russian attacks could become more deadly for Ukrainian civilians.
Major indicators hit resistance close to the fast-declining 21-day exponential moving averages, one of several potential resistance areas for the market attempt to rally. Tesla stock reversed lower after briefly crossing the 21-day line on Tuesday. an Apple (AAPL), and Nvidia shares were flattened near the 21-day streak. Microsoft (MSFT), which just closed above the 21-day and 200-day lines on Monday, pulled back on Tuesday.
US military officials say the Russian advance in Kyiv has stalled amid stiff Ukrainian resistance and logistical challenges. But the Russian military is using artillery and other inaccurate weapons against several cities, causing more civilian casualties.
Russia has said it is ready to resume peace talks with Ukraine, but it appears that there are no immediate prospects for an end to hostilities.
President Joe Biden delivered his State of the Union address to Congress and the country on Tuesday evening. He discussed the invasion of Ukraine, saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin underestimated the resolve of the United States and Europe. He announced that the United States would ban Russian aircraft from its airspace after the European Union, the United Kingdom and Canada.
Biden has pushed to revive at least parts of “building back better” legislation, viewing green energy plans as ways to reduce Russian energy dependence. Republicans argue that Biden should push for more domestic crude and natural gas production.
Fed Chairman Powell
Fed Chairman Powell will testify Before Congress at 10 a.m. ET Wednesday. Powell will likely indicate that a rate hike by the Fed will begin at the March 15-16 policy meeting, but he will emphasize flexibility. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, and subsequent sanctions, led to higher crude oil prices, as well as significant gains for base metals and grains. All of this threatens to drive inflation further, while also exacerbating supply chain problems and slowing economic growth. Meanwhile, workforce participation could increase with COVID cases and restrictions waning rapidly, relieving supply chain concerns and wage inflation.
Given all these big and uncertain cross-currents, Fed Chairman Powell will want to be smart and ready to change course — and make sure financial markets know it.
Markets, which had almost fully priced in a half-point rate hike a few weeks ago, still expected a quarter-point increase at the March meeting. But there is now a small to modest chance of the Fed not moving at the March meeting.
Ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, policy makers and investors will get the February employment report on Friday and the February CPI on March 10.
Dow Jones Component Salesforce.com (CR) mentioned Better than expected profits late on Tuesday. CRM stock rose modestly overnight, indicating a return to above the 21-day streak but dipped below the 50-day average rapid decline. Salesforce stock fell 0.8% to 208.89 on Tuesday.
dollar tree (DLTREarnings will be reported early Wednesday as DLTR stock has been flirting with buy signals for the past few weeks. The line relative force It has already reached a new high while Dollar Tree stock is anchoring, which is a bullish sign. Investors may want to use 144.56 as an entry point, above the January 6 high. The official buying point for the DLTR stock is 149.47.
Dow jones futures contracts today
Dow futures rose 0.7% against fair value. S&P 500 futures rose 0.8% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.9%. New York-listed CRM stock provides a boost to Dow and S&P 500 futures.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 1.75%.
Crude oil prices
US crude oil prices rose 5% to exceed $108 a barrel. Crude oil futures earlier exceeded $110, the highest level since 2013. Ukraine’s invasion and concerns over Russian crude supplies are driving the latest massive wave.
There are no sanctions against Russian crude oil or natural gas at the moment, but traders and shippers are increasingly “punishing themselves”, trying to avoid negative publicity. A significant part of Russia’s crude oil exports is not purchased, even with huge price discounts.
Natural gas futures rose slightly in the United States, but jumped more than 50% in Europe, as traders avoided deals with Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom.
At today’s OPEC+ meeting – with Russia accounting for most of that “excess” – the group is expected to continue to modestly increase production quotas, canceling pandemic-era cuts.
On Wednesday morning, the Energy Information Administration will release official US oil inventories, production and demand data. Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported a sharp drop in domestic crude supplies, with gasoline stocks also falling.
Among other commodities, wheat futures contracts continued to rise.
stock market rise
The stock market rally opened lower, briefly improved, but then sold off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.8% on Tuesday stock market trading. The S&P 500 fell 1.55%. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.6%. Small capital Russell 2000 decreased by 2%.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 13 basis points to 1.71%, now erasing nearly all of its gains in 2022.
Crude oil prices rose 8% to $103.41 a barrel, despite the United States and other countries announcing a significant but modest liberalization of strategic oil reserves.
Gold futures jumped 2.3% to a 13-month high.
Energy stocks rose as crude oil prices rose. Defense contractors continued to move vertically while gold, steel, and mining plays performed reasonably well. Financial matters and travel plays were a big loser.
between the Best ETFsThe Innovator IBD 50 ETF (fifty) gave up 1.5%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (fit) decreased by 0.7%. iShares Expanded Technology and Software Fund (ETF)IGV) fell 0.9%, with major components of Microsoft and CRM shares. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor Corporation (SMH) declined by 3.15%. Nvidia stock is SMH’s major ownership.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) is up 2.5% and US ETF Global X Infrastructure Development (cradle) gave up 1.9%. US Global Gates Foundation (ETF)Planes) fell 5.1%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) down 1.3%. SPDR Specific Energy Fund (SPDR ETF)XLE) advanced by 1% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) slipped 3.7%. SPDR Healthcare Sector Selection Fund (XLV) decreased 0.55%
Shares reflect more speculative stories, the ARK Innovation ETF (see yougave up 3.1% and the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) 1.7%. As elsewhere, these ETFs are hitting resistance near the 21-day lines. Tesla stock continues to rank number one among ARK Invest’s ETFs.
Stocks hit 21-day resistance
Just like the market rally, many giant bonds are hitting resistance at the 21-day lines.
Apple’s stock didn’t quite hit the 21-day streak, but reversed from its 10-day average, dropping just over 1% to 163.38. Above the 21-day line there are 50 days. AAPL stock clearing this key level may offer an early entry. but responsible double bottom Buying point is 176.75. The RS line for Apple stock is not far from the highs.
Microsoft stock fell 1.15% to 295.34, down from the 21-day and 200-day streaks. A move above Tuesday’s high of 299.97 could offer a solid entry as a long-term leader. But the 50-day moving average and the February peak at 315.12 are also major obstacles. The official buying point for the MSFT stock is 349.77.
Nvidia’s stock slipped 3.75% to 234.70, to test the 200-day streak again after hitting the 21-day mark on Monday. An entry above the 50-day line and February high at 269.25 is likely to be required to make a strong entry. It’s a long way to reach the peak of 346.47 NVDA shares.
Tesla stock rose to 889.88 on Tuesday morning, moving above 21 days, before falling 0.75% to 863.93. The electric car giant has held up much better than other auto stocks or high-value growth names. TSLA regained its 200 streak on Monday, after rebounding from a 2022 low of 700 last week. A entry above the February 9 high at 946.27 and the 50-day line could provide a solid entry. The official point of purchase is 1208.10.
Market Rise Analysis
An attempt to rally the stock market is facing resistance, as the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indexes canceled a three-day winning streak.
They have held onto most of their recent gains. Pause here is not alarming. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices have given up more of their bounce lately, but their attempts to rally are untouched.
The market is still headline-driven. As an investor, you don’t need to follow the headlines too anxiously, but you should be aware that news can have major impacts on the market and the sector.
This is especially true now. Lots of assumptions embedded in the markets have been turned upside down. Inflation is at a 40-year high, and Europe is aggressively changing its decades-old defense policies overnight.
Of course, this does not mean that the stock market will go in the direction that seems obvious – that proves the massive rally in the stock market in 2020 amid the pandemic and the collapsed economy.
a Follow-up day It can still happen at any time to confirm a new market rally. The success of a confirmed uptrend cannot be guaranteed, as recent massive market selling has shown, but it is a positive sign.
Away from the 21-day moving average, the major indicators are facing resistance at their February highs as well as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with all-time highs well above that. So the next sure rally in the stock market will face a lot of technical hurdles in addition to the major major risks.
For the market to move sideways – with or without the FTD – it wouldn’t be a terrible thing. More stocks make up bases now. There are already a large number of “blue dot” shares in MarketSmith – Establishing stocks or exiting RS lines at their peaks already. A few more weeks could generate a new crop of mergers, while some hot stocks might present new opportunities to buy or add shares.
What are you doing now
The market is still forgotten. The attempt to rise met with resistance, but it still stood. But there is no real reason for the increased exposure.
While there are reasons to hold holdings in hot groups and sectors such as energy, defense, fertilizer, and steel, many leaders have already expanded. Due to the high volatility, investors may want to take partial profits from some of the new winners.
Keep building those watch lists. The number of shares set up at bases with RS lines is increasing at new heights. So the potential leadership is growing.
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