To start a fire – but not destroy the market by doing so. That is the goal now. It’s not as easy as in Jack London’s famous short story (“Too Build a Fire”) where the survivors win in the end rather than freeze to death in their sleep. In the early part of this decade, we have seen the rise of Robinhood (HOOD) and the distribution of investments from dangerous to ephemeral. These days Robinhood has emerged as a giant fire for young money. The concept of gamification was real and the investor exodus was noisy – culminating with the ridiculous self-sacrifice of GameStop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC), and meme stock. Those who fought the trend abandoned Twitter, hired bodyguards and tried to hide from angry mobs trying to raise stocks by attacking sellers. No fire from these clowns. Then there was the much larger than expected for cryptocurrency. The people who bought it somehow wracked their minds in something they didn’t understand. As a result, they racked their brains and outsourced it to other people who claimed to know more than they did. You had to oppose a phalanx of self-promoting brash bastards and their fintech allies in government and venture capital – all of whom should feel shame, but shame eludes them. They will not accept their intellectual shame, and instead continue to say that it is all about blockchain technology and DeFi (Decentralized Finance). They want to explain to you why they got it right and you got it wrong, even when they lost everything and you were keeping your money safe in JPMorgan. I wish I had an arrogance meter, something like a giant thermometer that could measure these arrogant promoters and give them the hook when they claim to be smarter than you for believing in something with a better use case like untraceable ransom money. But this era is running out. It will be done combatively, of course, as we see its representatives defend themselves with specious arguments that seem so self-deceitful and outright fake that even impartial minds are repulsed and rebelled. The money furnace that Robinhood has been burning sweetly in exchange for the napalm of cryptocurrency. Interests that have championed cryptocurrencies cannot go quietly as it will empty crypto bank coffers and cause waves of bankruptcies; The $34 billion that we know was ruined by Sam Bankman-Fried – the disgraced former head of failed cryptocurrency exchange FTX – backed pretty much everything. We continue to agonize over the alleged due diligence done by many who should have known better, with only two institutions writing their investments with nothing, besides their explanations, or the lack thereof. Here’s the catch: If it all goes away — crypto and all the institutions that support it — the money that’s left isn’t going to help drive up stock prices. It was once a magnet for a few trillion dollars. Now I wonder if there is $400 billion for the whole edifice. The whole thing reminds me of a line from “Beau Geste” when two of the main characters are attacked: “You’ll do your duty better than you lived.” The largest rifles are likely to be filtered as they speak, double calibers. They’ll tell us we’re fools not to believe in the blockchain as if that somehow leans towards something other than lies and blunders. My point is: the cryptocurrency scam and dollar fire Robinhood can’t produce enough money to prop up stocks. There wasn’t enough left in these embers to do anything but marvel at how much there was and how little the bankrupt was. No matter how many hearings, we will never know the full guilt behind those in Congress and those on the Securities and Exchange Commission who opposed Chairman Gary Gensler. He came to CNBC specifically to warn us about coins and institutions that give you a very high return compared to cash in a real bank. Self-serving cryptocurrency players have criticized the Securities and Exchange Commission. They want to study Gensler and teach him that he can only go so far before he meets all the well-resourced entities and their secret paid supporters. the horror! the horror! So where will the money come from? In contrast to the imaginary trillions that have vanished into thin crypto air, the fuel will come from four stocks totaling $6 trillion to give away: Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN). Simply put, there is a lot of money in these names to lift us, or at least how far we can go after the next meeting of the Federal Reserve this week. But I think some of that investor’s money will be diverted into stocks of companies with the most voracious buybacks. These are companies that don’t have enough inventory on hand to handle all the money that will flow in. Funds will be drawn into these four stocks, kicking and screaming, until valuations are floor – better than Meta Platforms (META) and more like the S&P as they are revealed to be deadly. Until then, the assembly cannot begin in earnest. Can these assessments be made? It’s happening as you read this. Of course, there is another enemy of progress and it is a powerful one: a 4.5% yield on 2-year Treasuries is so plentiful in a market that anything in equities above 4% is likely to be associated with lower oil prices. Still, we’re clinging to the oils, betting they can keep their prices well above market prices when Russia can’t produce on its endless reserves and China goes on a binge when it reopens. I think we will win. We’ll hold Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon, even as we scaled back higher. However, their snail on the ground would be painful. If we don’t sell some, it’ll be late in the game. But I suspect there is more pain to come. Why did he take it? Because these companies still have value, even though it won’t show up until the sale takes place and we don’t know when that will happen. It’s very dangerous now to leave, even though Apple could see a drop of $120 and Microsoft by 10 points. Amazon and Alphabet control their destinies by cutting staff. The good news? Selling may end after the Fed meeting. The bad news: If that happens, there won’t be enough rocket fuel. The Big Four need to shell out a trillion minimum to run things higher. I think it will happen in time. Which means a rough week until the transfer process begins. Hold on to what you’ve got, but prepare to rally from the stocks with the strongest buybacks. This is where accumulation will be most important. (See here for a full list of shares in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber of the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you’ll receive a trade alert before Jim places a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a share in his charity fund portfolio. If Jim talks about a stock on CNBC, he waits 72 hours after the trade alert is issued before executing the trade. The above investment club information is subject to our terms and conditions and privacy policy, along with our disclaimer. No fiduciary obligation or duty will be created by the staff, or created, by virtue of your receipt of any information provided in connection with Investment Club. There are no specific results or guaranteed profit.
Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft Corporation, during the company’s Ignite Spotlight event in Seoul, South Korea, on Tuesday, November 15, 2022. Nadella delivered a keynote address at an event hosted by the company’s Korean unit.
Seung Joon Cho | bloomberg | Getty Images
To start a fire – but not destroy the market by doing so.
That is the goal now. It’s not as easy as in Jack London’s famous short story (“Too Build a Fire”) where the survivors win in the end rather than freeze to death in their sleep.
In the early part of this decade, we’ve seen an upswing Robinhood (hood) and the distribution of investments from serious to fleeting. These days Robinhood has emerged as a giant fire for young money. The concept of gamification was real and the investor exodus was noisy – culminating with ridiculous self-sacrifice Jim Stop (GME), AMC Entertainment (AMC) and meme shares. Those who fought the trend abandoned Twitter, hired bodyguards and tried to hide from angry mobs trying to raise stocks by attacking sellers. No fire from these clowns.
