Elon Musk left a warning: although Moscow has “no chance” of capturing all of Ukraine, “the longer the war lasts, the more territory Russia will gain until it reaches the Dnipro, which is difficult to cross”. “However, if the war drags on for too long, Odessa will also fall,” he warned.
However, the billionaire's predictions are not too different from the dire warnings recently made by Volodymyr Zelensky: according to the Ukrainian president, if the US financial aid package is not approved soon, his forces will have to “withdraw, retreat, step by step, in small steps”, highlighting that some major cities may be at risk of falling. .
Zelensky's warnings are part of a broader diplomatic effort to free Kiev of much-needed military aid from the US Congress: but in reality, even if the package is approved, it will not be enough to avoid a major disruption on the battlefield. This was pointed out by the 'Politico' newspaper on Wednesday. The setbacks could revive Western pressure for talks, which, at this point, would favor Russia, leaving the Kremlin free to renew the conflict in the future as it chooses.
At this point, it all depends on where Russia decides to deploy its forces in the expected summer offensive — in recent weeks, Russian missile and drone strikes have ramped up, making it difficult to predict where it will launch its biggest offensive. According to Ukrainian military officials, the publication noted, the military picture is bleak: front lines risk collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to concentrate their offensive. They asserted that Russia would probably be able to “penetrate the front line and knock it out in some areas,” especially given the guided aerial bombardment that has been decimating Ukrainian positions for weeks.
“There is nothing that can help Ukraine now, because Ukraine does not have any technologies capable of compensating for the large amount of troops that Russia will launch against us. We do not have these technologies, and neither do the Western countries in sufficient numbers,” said a military source, citing only Ukrainian courage and resilience and the mistakes of Russian commanders. Now he promises to change dark mechanics.
However, senior Ukrainian officials recalled that relying on Russian mistakes was not a strategy, insisting that there were mistakes that undermined Ukraine's resistance from the start, pointing to a slowdown in supplies and weapons systems from Kiev and the West. Come too late and not in sufficient numbers to make a difference.
“Jalushni [comandante-chefe das Forças Armadas ucranianas substituído em fevereiro] I called it a 'war of opportunity,'” one of the military sources highlighted. “With that, the weapons systems become redundant very quickly because they are quickly countered by the Russians. For example, we used Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles [fornecidos pela Grã-Bretanha e França] Successfully – but only for a short time. Russians always study, don't give us a second chance. And they're succeeding at it.”
“Don't believe the 'hype' that they are throwing troops into a meat grinder to be slaughtered,” he added. “Of course they're doing this too — exaggerating the impact of their superior numbers — but they're learning and refining.”
“But often we don't get weapons systems when we need them — they arrive when they're no longer relevant,” said a senior official, giving the example of F-16 fighter jets — about a dozen F-16s are expected. It will be operational this summer. “Every weapon has its proper time. F-16s needed by 2023; They won't be right in 2024,” he assured.
It's because Russia is ready to fight them: “In recent months, we began to observe missiles fired by the Russians from Zhankoy in northern Crimea, but without explosive weapons. “We couldn't understand what they were doing, and then we found out: they understand the distance”, he explained. To increase the strike area of the F-16s away from the front lines and logistics centers in Russia, where to position its S-400 missile and radar systems. The official recalled that Russia reckons the best.
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