Deep in Russian-controlled territory in southern Ukraine, there are already signs that a battle may be looming in the occupied city of Melitopol, according to Ivan Fedorov, the city’s exiled Ukrainian mayor.
Mr. Fedorov said in an interview that more than 20 explosions have occurred at Russian military sites in Melitopol in the past three weeks, including at an airport and at a warehouse used by Moscow’s forces to repair armored vehicles. He refused to disclose whether the sites had been bombed by long-range Ukrainian artillery or by Ukrainian resistance fighters operating secretly in Russian-controlled areas.
In recent days, the Russian news agency TASS has published at least one report on explosions in Melitopol. It was not possible to independently verify the accounts of Mr Fedorov, whose regular updates on social media about the situation in Melitopol have made him one of the most prominent Ukrainian mayors in exile from the occupied territories.
“Russian bases are bombed on a regular basis,” he said in an interview this week in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital. He declined to comment on Ukraine’s military plans, but said the escalation in bombings appeared to be “a preparation for the liberation of our lands”.
Regaining control of Melitopol, where road and rail hubs connect Russia with occupied Crimea, is believed to be one possible target for an expected Ukrainian counterattack. In the past, Ukrainian officials have sought to play up potential counterattacks and also sow confusion about where and when they might be launched, as part of the ongoing information battle in the nearly 14-month war.
Russian forces captured Melitopol early in their comprehensive invasion. As the population protested against the occupation, Mr. Fedorov was arrested by Russian forces, then released. He has since moved to another part of Ukraine, where he says he continues to perform mayoral duties.
Mr. Fedorov, who said his information comes from residents still living in Melitopol, gave some examples of what he said indicated Russia was preparing a Ukrainian offensive in the south. He said that the occupation authorities had recently appointed Russian citizens as heads of small towns and villages around Melitopol, replacing Ukrainian collaborators belonging to the local population, in an apparent attempt to consolidate political control. They are also stepping up efforts to evacuate civilians from small towns near the front line, as trucks with loudspeakers drive through the streets calling on residents to leave, according to Mr. Fedorov.
“We understand that there is some panic. Yesterday it was ‘Russia forever,’” he said, referring to the slogan of the occupation officials. “Now they say, ‘Leave.’”
Retaking Melitopol could allow Ukraine to cut off the transport links that Russia uses to supply its forces in parts of the occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. But Fedorov said fighting in the city would carry risks for civilians as well as Russian military and government employees.
He added that Melitopol had a pre-war population of about 150,000, of whom about half fled after last year’s invasion. After that, he said, between 50,000 and 70,000 internally displaced persons and Russian government employees moved into the city, describing it as “full of civilians”.
He acknowledged that any attempt by Ukrainian forces to retake the city would be “difficult” and echoed complaints from other Ukrainian officials that Western allies had been complacent in arming Ukraine for a counterattack.
“The partners waited a long time to provide weapons,” he added. “The Russians had time to prepare.”
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